Regional growth convergence and EU policies: Empirical evidence and measuring problems

Regionales Wachstum, EU-Regionalfonds, Entwicklungskonvergenz, Messung, EU-Staaten, Regional growth, EU cohesion fund, Economic convergence, Measurement, EU countries

REFORMING THE CAP: AN AGENDA FOR REGIONAL GROWTH?

This paper aims at analysing the recent CAP reform from the perspective of the current general and strategic objectives of the EU as defined by the Lisbon Strategy. A critical appraisal of the CAP impact in terms of regional growth is carried out. Firstly from a strictly conceptual and methodological point of view, then by analysing more in detail how CAP reform (of both Pillar I and II) might have actually affected the role of the CAP in promoting (or hindering) regional growth and, therefore, convergence. Empirical evidence provided by the different available methodologies has progressively emerged in the very last years. Though a conclusive answer on the impact of the reform can not be drawn, it still emerges that the role of CAP design and implementation in affecting regional growth and convergence is usually underestimated and often neglected in the discussions about the future of the CAP. At the same time, however, this role is not univocal and strongly case-specific, as it substantially differs across regions according to their socio-economic structure and how reforms are jointly implemented.Common Agricultural Policy, Regional Growth and Convergence, Lisbon Strategy, Agricultural and Food Policy, Community/Rural/Urban Development, Q180, R110, O410,

Why Should Regional Agricultural Productivity Growth Converge? Evidence from Italian Regions

The paper analyses agricultural TFP growth across Italian regions during the 1952-2002 period, and aims at identifying those factors that favour or hinder regional agricultural TFP growth convergence. Of major relevance is whether regions, despite their inescapable heterogeneity, tend to share common technological improvements, that is, to move along the same productivity growth rate. TFP growth decomposition ultimately allows attributing observed productivity performance to convergence and divergence forces. Appropriate testing and estimation procedures are adopted to take into account panel unit-root issues and cross-sectional dependence.TFP growth, Convergence, Panel Data, Productivity Analysis,

The Regional Multi-Agent Simulator (RegMAS): assessing the impact of the "Health Check" in an Italian region

Agent-based models (AMB) allow to conceive social systems as the result of individually-acting agents. When they are applied to agriculture, they can simulate the fundamental behaviour at the micro-level of the individual farmers, without the need of aggregating them in “representative” agents. RegMAS (Regional Multi Agent Simulator) is an open-source spatially explicit multi-agent model framework specifically designed for long-term simulations of effects of policies on agricultural systems. Using iterated conventional optimisation problems as agents' behavioural rules, it allows for a bidirectional integration between geophysical and social models where spatially distributed characteristics are taken into account in the linear programming problem of the optimising agents as individual resources. The model is applied to asses the impact of the Health Check, the imminent further Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) reform, on farms structures, incomes and land use in a hilly area of a central Italian region (Marche). Our results suggest that the Health Check, while increasing the farmer profit net of CAP support, is substantially neutral on the overall farmer incomes, also through a reduction of the off-farm labour. Neverless, a limited negative effects may arise in the farms numerousness, with the consequence of a land abandonment that is noticeable only on mountain areas, where distances between farmers are greater.Agent based model, health check, regional economics, Agricultural and Food Policy, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods,

Modelling the Impact of 2003 CAP Reform on Crop Production: The case of Durum Wheat in Italy

This paper aims to summarize some of the major results emerging from simulating the impact of the CAP reform (the so-called Fischler Reform or Luxembourg Agreement, LA) within the AG-MEMOD model of the agri-food sector in Italy. The paper shows how the model generates impacts when alternative policy scenarios (Agenda 2000 vs. LA) are specified. As major evidence of this impact in the Italian case, the crop sector is dealt with in detail. In particular, the case of supplementary payments for durum wheat clarifies how the reform may specifically affect Mediterranean agriculture and how alternative specifications of the regime switch in durum wheat support relevantly influence the impact.Common Agricultural Policy, Italian Agriculture, Commodity Market Models, Crop Production/Industries, Q110, Q180,

The Regional Multi-Agent Simulator (RegMAS): an open-source spatially explicit model to assess the impact of agricultural policies

RegMAS (Regional Multi Agent Simulator) is an open-source spatially explicit multi-agent model framework specifically designed for long-term simulations of the effects of policies on agricultural systems. Using iterated conventional optimisation problems as agents’ behavioural rules, it allows for a bidirectional integration between geophysical and social models where spatially-distributed characteristics are taken into account in the programming problem of the optimising agents. With RegMAS it is possible to simulate the local specific response to a given policy (or scenario), where policies, together with macro and regional characteristics, are read into the program in specially formatted spreadsheets and standard GIS files. The paper presents the model logic and structure and describes its functioning by applying it to a case-study, where RegMAS results are compared with conventional agent-based modelling to demonstrate the advantages of spatial explicitness. The simulation refers to the impact of the recent “Health Check” of the CAP on farm structures, income and land use in a hilly area of a central Italian region (Marche).Agent-Based Modelling; Mathematical Programming; Explicit Spatial Analysis; Common Agricultural Policy

The regional model for Mediterranean agriculture

AgriPoliS is a multi-agent mixed integer linear programming (MIP) model, spatially explicit, developed in C++ language and suitable for long-term sim- ulations of agricultural policies. Beyond the mixed integer programming core, the model main feature is the interaction among a set of heterogeneous farm- ers and between them and the environment in which they operate. In this paper we describe an extension of the model allowing AgriPoliS to deal with typical characters of the Mediterranean agriculture. In particular AgriPoliS was extended to allow a generic number of products and soil types, included perennial crops and products with quality differentiation. Furthermore, it can explicitly take into account irrigation.Mediterranean Agriculture; Common Agricultural Policy; Agent-based Models

Determinants of farm diversification and interaction with the CAP. An application to FADN of Marche region (Italy)

This work analyzes farm diversification activities in an Italian region (Marche). The study examines 387 farms from Farm Accountancy Data Network (FADN) over a six-year period (2000-2005), applying Discrete Choice Models to identify their business. Recognizing the driving forces of such diversification strategy can be useful to better design those agricultural policies explicitly aimed at promoting agricultural multifunctionality as well as social and environmental sustainability. The linkage between diversification choices and CAP payments is thus also investigated.Farm diversification, Discrete Choice Models, Multifunctionality, Agricultural and Food Policy, Farm Management,

Public R&D Investment and Cost Behaviour in Italian Agriculture: 1960-1995.

The public R&D capital stock is introduced as a quasi-fixed input in a variable cost function. The relative shadow price allows the correct measurement of the equilibrium levels of quasi-fixed inputs thus explicitly assessing the hypothesis of public R&D under (over) investment. By introducing an appropriate R&D price in the long-run equilibrium, the model can also provide empirical evidence on the rationale driving public R&D investment and on the hypothesis that free-riding on public R&D can explain overinvestment. Moreover, the model allows a formal testing of the induced innovation hypothesis and a more accurate calculation of both internal rate of return to R&D and residual exogenous productivity growth. The empirical implications of the model are appraised in the case of Italian agriculture for the period 1960-1995.Public Economics,

Agricultural Price Transmission Across Space and Commodities During Price Bubbles

This paper analyses the horizontal transmission of cereal price shocks both across different market places and across different commodities. The analysis is carried out using Italian and international weekly spot (cash) price data and concentrating the attention on years 2006-2010, a period of generalized exceptional exuberance and consequent rapid drop of agricultural prices. The work aims at investigating how price transmission may be affected during price bubbles. The properties of price time series are firstly explored to assess which data generation process may have eventually produced the observed patterns. Secondly, the interdependence across prices is specified and estimated adopting appropriate cointegration techniques.Price Transmission, Price Bubbles, Time Series Properties, Cointegration, Demand and Price Analysis, Q110, C320,